The Demographic Transition Model

Stage 1: High Fluctuating, eg Zimbabwe

Reasons for High Birth Rate:

1. High infant mortality rate
2. In some cultures children are a sign of fertility
3. Limited birth control/family planning
4. Future source of income

Reasons for High Death Rate:

1. Poor levels of hygiene facilitates the spread of disease
2. Not much food surplus, famine
3. Inadequate health facilities

Stage 2: Early Expanding eg Uganda

Reasons for falling death rate:

1. Industrialisation generates wealth leading to an improvement in public health
2. Increase in personal wealth means better nutrition
3. Improvement in public health facilities and widening access to healthcare, often leading to a decrease in child mortality rates

Stage 3: Late Expanding eg China

Reasons for a falling birth rate:

1. Increasing personal wealth leads to a change in social trends and fashions followed by a rise in materialism
2. Better access to family planning
3. Compulsory schooling makes children more expensive
4. Improved access to health and sanitation facilities leads to a lower infant mortality rate
5. Greater access to education for women and later marriages leads to a preference for smaller families

Stage 4: Low Fluctuating eg Japan

Reasons for fluctuations in Birth/Death rate:

1. Increase in lifestyle diseases from low excersize and fatty foods
2. Groth of and acceptance of childlessness
3. Growth of individualism linked to women working
4. Greater financial independence of women
5. Concern for the impact an increased population has on the world's resources
6. Breakout of relatively new epidemics/pandemics eg AIDs

Stage 5: Decline eg Germany